More than half of commercial lawyers intend to vote for the Labour Party at the forthcoming General Election, The Lawyer‘s opinion poll of the profession has revealed.

Just over 53 per cent of 888 respondents between 23-27 May said they would cast their vote for Labour, compared to 18 per cent for the Conservatives, a 35-point lead that is larger than the 20-or-so points Labour holds with the wider public. Meanwhile, 13 per cent of legal professionals plan to vote for the Liberal Democrats, while only 6.6 per cent remain undecided.

Of 19 managing partners that responded to the poll, nine are backing Labour, five the Lib Dems, three the Conservatives with two still undecided. In total, 50 per cent of other partners will vote Labour, rising to 56 per cent for associates and 60 per cent for law firm business services professionals.

The Green Party achieved its best support from the trainee/paralegal/apprentice cohort, garnering 6 per cent support from this group as opposed to 5 per cent among business services professionals, 4 per cent among associates and 1 per cent among partners.

In a small Scottish sample (39 respondents), 64 per cent were backing Labour and 18 per cent the SNP.

Most respondents expect Labour to have secured a sizable victory on July 5, though 18 per cent are predicting a hung Parliament – about the same amount as think there will be a Labour majority of over 100.

City lawyers would be more concerned about the effect of a Conservative victory on business than they would be of a hung Parliament, with 35 per cent more worried about the former and 30.4 per cent more fearful of the latter. Just under 20 per cent would be most concerned about a Labour victory with only 14.8 per cent saying none of those three potential outcomes would bother them.

Among the many lawyers hoping to be elected to Parliament for the first time are Clifford Chance and White & Case associates Oliver Carroll and Mhairi Fraser for the Conservatives in Altringham and Epsom & Ewell respectively, and Browne Jacobson partner Paul Ray for the Liberal Democrats in Lichfield. Meanwhile, the Labour Party’s general counsel and ex-Allen & Overy lawyer Alex Barros-Curtis was selected to fight Cardiff West at the end of last week.

Voting intention by 2019 vote

Why are you planning to vote as you are? Selected responses 

“Rishi Sunak is a sensible politician with integrity. Keir Starmer is a decent chap, I don’t doubt, but is a stalking horse for the Corbinista wing of the party” (Partner, top 50 firm, South of England, Conservative)

“The Tories have forfeited the right to govern with their economic mismanagement and sleaze. Labour are demonstrably now the party of fiscal discipline, balancing the needs of workers and business.” (Managing partner, London, Labour)

“Tories ruined the country with Brexit and have turned into a watered-down version of the EDF. Labour are not ready to govern and are going to raise our already unbearable tax burden. There are no other good options, so Lib Dems by default because they’re not insane.” (Partner, US firm in London, Lib Dem)

“Because the Labour party do not understand business. They will increase taxes considerably and we will not see any benefit from this. They will allow migration to spiral when we should continue to push for the Rwanda scheme. They will last 2 terms and then the conservatives will be called in to sort the mess out, its the same old cycle and same old Labour!” (Associate, top 50 firm, London, Conservative)

“Cost of living crisis is so tough and don’t trust conservatives can sort it out. Labour shadow chancellor has had good support from Mark Carney who helped UK get out of the 2008 crash” (Associate, top 50 firm, South of England, Labour)

“My constituency isn’t marginal, so I don’t have to vote for the less worse of the two front runners. I think the Conservatives have failed the country (and aren’t properly Conservative) but couldn’t vote for a Labour party led by a man who slid from the supposedly apolitical DPP’s office to a seat in Parliament.” (Associate, top 50 firm, London, Lib Dem)

“I lean Green. The constituency I lived in during the 2019 election was not a safe Labour seat, so I voted tactically. This year, I live in a safe Labour seat, so feel as though I can vote my conscience, to send the message that green policies are important.” (Associate, UK101-200 firm, London, Green)

“Labour have no ideas, except to add VAT to school fees which is grossly unjust, will put teachers out of work, will punish not the uber-rich but bursary students and families who can only just afford it, will cause a massive burden on state schools, will raise little or no revenue, will lead to the closure of many excellent institutions that have been vehicles of social mobility. It will not lead to the closure of our best public schools but make them the preserve of international billionaires from dodgy places.” (Partner, top 50 firm, London, Conservative)

“I wish to wipe the smug “we know best” smirk off the face of the Conservative Party. After COVID parties and contracts, Brexit, Rwanda, junior doctors pay etc etc I cannot wait to get rid of them. The Conservative campaign launch party was horrific, with them all cheering and taking a victory lap as if the UK had won the ‘Government lottery’ for the last 14 years!!!”  (Associate, top 50 firm, London, Labour)

“Tactical vote to remove Conservative candidate” (In-house lawyer, Midlands, Lib Dem)

“Tories have been a shower. Could never vote Labour. Reform offer genuine conservative policies that speak to me” (Partner, UK51-100 firm, South of England, Reform UK)

What are your plans for election night?

  • “All nighter, regardless of the outcome, I find election night really exciting, watching history unfold and imagining scenes from The Thick of It playing out in Whitehall.” (Associate, Midlands)
  • Don’t know yet – but certainly helps that clients will be off for 4 July so hopefully we’ll host a party, maybe even at the office (Partner, US firm in London)
  • “Some friends, some wine and waiting for the inevitable Portillo moment down Surrey way.” (Partner, top 50 firm, London)
  • “Listening to D-Ream on repeat while liquidating my bitcoin to pay for next term’s VAT so my kid doesn’t have to change schools.” (In-house lawyer, Midlands)
  • “I’ll be staying up all night because I’m an out-and-out political nerd.” (Associate, UK top 50 firm, North of England)
  • “I have a holiday booked so will be desperately trying to watch coverage via a VPN and dodgy internet connection (Thanks, Rishi)” (Associate, top 50 firm, London)
  • “Celebrate a Labour majority when the exit poll is announced. Drown my sorrows if the exit poll has the Tories as the largest party.” (Trainee, paralegal or apprentice, UK top 50 firm, North)
  • “Attending Bristol Law Society Battle of the Bands” (Business services professional, barristers’ chambers, London)”
  • “To party long into the night with Labour politicians, donors and activists. It has been a long time coming and the relief, after the last 14 years of chaos and mismanagement, will be palpable.” (Managing partner, London)
  • “Watching in a hotel suite with my naughty Tory mistress.” (Business services professional, Scotland)
  • “Not reading The Lawyer (sorry!)” (Partner, top 50 firm, London)

Your past election memories

“I know the early 2000s I worked in the London office of a US firm where all the associates were asked, just before bonus time, to pay their “political action contribution” by way of personal cheque (in those days) to the managing partners’ office. 2.5% of salary was mentioned for associates and it was well understood there was a connection between the donation and bonus. The funds were used to support the election campaign of a US governor, who in turn was expected to appoint one of our partners to be a judge, and for miscellaneous “Irish cultural organisations”. I refused, and got no bonus.” (Partner, UK top 50 firm, London)

“One of my instructing solicitors holds an election night or referendum party. He tells me that 4 July 2024 is “Alice in Wonderland Day” and he has invited his guests to turn up as one of the characters from the story.” (Barrister, North of England)

I remember waking up on 24 June 2016 whilst on my vacation scheme at a City firm to the news that the UK would be leaving the EU. Shortly after, David Cameron resigned. Panic and despair broke throughout the City, and I remember one associate from the firm in question saying “there is no hope, I would even be worried about being offered a training contract with us”. It felt like a day of mourning, and the mood in the City echoed that sentiment. Whilst I do think leaving the EU was a mistake at the time, I do see a brighter future for the UK and have faith that, in the long term, it was probably the right decision. And, yes, whilst the UK economy is in a poor state of health at the moment, those City training contracts still seem to be very much up for grabs… (Associate, London)

“The best party at Nottingham Law School when the Blair government got in – sheer excitement and confidence in the U.K. It was a while ago!” (Partner, US firm in London)

“When a law student during the 1992 election I worked the door at a Tory MP’s event when John Major attended. We were mobbed by 20+ members of the Socialist Workers Party which resulted in an unedifying scuffle that made the local press!” (Barrister, North of England)

“Clifford Chance’s war room for the Brexit referendum was laughed about in the press the day before, and envied by competitors thereafter.” (Associate, US firm in London)

Not an election story per se, but Dom Raab claiming he was a human rights lawyer due to a few weeks’ internship at Liberty as a Links trainee really put some backs up in the profession. It would be nice to see legally trained politicians who actually contribute their extensive experience to the public realm. A major difference with the States is the more limited role of lawyers in public life here. (Partner, US firm in London)

When I was a trainee back in 2015/16 I worked with a former SPAD for David Cameron. She was horrified that I’d consider voting for Labour because she said I’d be £1,000 better off under the Tories. I explained to her that I cared about the effect of policies on other people, to which she responded in classic Tory fashion “but I don’t care about the poor people, I only care about me”. I believe she returned to politics after finishing her TC. (Associate, US firm in London)